Forex is one of the most active markets in the world, yet one of the least understood.
Many retail traders attempt scalping strategies targeting:
- +1 pip
- +2 pips
- +3 pips
But the truth is simple:
**Forex scalping is mathematically impossible for retail traders.
The spread, commission, slippage, and execution mechanics make a positive expectancy unavailable.**
This article explains why.
1. Forex Spread Is Variable — Not Fixed
New traders often assume they can trade with spreads like:
- 0.6 pips
- 0.8 pips
- 1.2 pips
But spreads in forex are never constant. They expand due to:
- liquidity shifts
- session changes
- volatility
- news
- rollover
- broker risk adjustments
A typical EURUSD spread may be:
- 0.6–1.0 pips in peak liquidity
- 1.5–3 pips in low liquidity
- 5–20 pips at rollover
- 20–50+ pips during news events
A 1–2 pip target becomes unachievable the moment the spread exceeds the target size — which happens frequently.
2. Stop-Loss Orders Trigger on Spread, Not Price
STOP orders (STOP-LOSS, BUY-STOP, SELL-STOP) are triggered by the ask/bid, not the mid-price.
This means:
- your SL can trigger even if the real market never traded there
- spread spikes act exactly like invisible price movements
- a valid trade can still be closed purely due to spread expansion
This is most visible at:
- news
- low-liquidity periods
- rollover
- early Asian session
Spread, not price, ends up closing the trade.
3. Micro Targets Are Untradeable — Because Your TP Must Cover the Move and the Spread
A common misconception is that spread “makes you lose money.”
That is not technically correct.
The real mechanism is this:
Your TP must be reached plus the spread to actually trigger.
Example:
- Intended TP = +1 pip
- Spread = 2 pips
Then the market must move:
3 pips in your direction for the +1 pip TP to execute.
You are not losing because of spread —
you are simply starting every trade from a worse position, with:
- a farther break-even level
- a farther effective TP
- a higher required market movement
- an extremely poor expectancy
In short:
The position is not “losing” —
it begins inside a probability hole it cannot escape.
If your target is smaller than spread + slippage,
your system is structurally untradeable.
4. ECN Brokers Do NOT Fix This Problem (Commission Myth)
Many beginners believe:
“Use a raw-spread ECN account with commission — it’s cheaper.”
This is false.
An ECN account reduces the visible spread,
but replaces it with:
- commissions
- still-variable raw spread
- slippage
- liquidity-based widening
The total cost becomes:
(raw spread) + (commission) + (slippage)
For retail traders:
**ECN is not cheaper.
It is often more expensive.**
Reducing one fee simply increases another.
The overall cost structure does not change.
5. Even 15-Minute Intraday Trading Suffers From Spread Expansion
Many traders try to avoid scalping by using:
- 15m entries
- 20–30 pip targets
- intraday setups
But spread expansion still destroys trades.
Daily rollover spikes (market reset) can widen spreads to:
- 10–20 pips on EURUSD
- 15–30 pips on GBPUSD
- 30–100+ pips on exotics
If the ASK or BID touches your SL due to spread widening,
your trade is executed — even if real price never moved there.
One rollover spike can erase a full week of gains.
6. A Single Spread Spike Can Destroy an Entire System
Short-term forex systems rely on:
- tight SL
- small TP
- stable spread
- stable volatility
But the market ALWAYS delivers:
- sudden liquidity gaps
- rollover expansions
- news spikes
- random widening events
A single spike invalidates all historical performance,
because the strategy never accounted for real microstructure.
7. Commission + Spread + Slippage = Unbeatable Cost Structure
Retail execution cost components:
- Spread
- Commission
- Slippage
- Stop-order triggering behavior
Total cost per trade is often:
- 1.5–3.0 pips in majors
- 3–6 pips in minors
- 5–15+ pips in exotics
The market must move far enough to clear:
TP + spread + slippage
This makes short-term expectancy negative regardless of strategy quality.
8. Forex Scalping Is Not “Hard” — It Is Structurally Impossible
This is not opinion.
It is math and market mechanics:
You cannot beat a cost that exceeds your target size and changes unpredictably.
Discipline cannot fix it.
Psychology cannot fix it.
Indicators cannot fix it.
Better entries cannot fix it.
Faster execution cannot fix it.
The structure of the market forbids it.
9. Swing Trading Is the Only Logically Defensible Forex Approach
Forex becomes viable only when:
- targets are wide (100–300+ pips)
- stops are also wide
- spread becomes irrelevant
- slippage becomes minor
- rollover spikes become noise
- small distortions don’t matter
A 150-pip target is unaffected by:
- 2-pip spread
- 8–15-pip rollover expansion
- 1–2 pips of slippage
But a 2-pip target is destroyed immediately.
10. Summary
Forex scalping is impossible because:
- spread is variable
- spread > target
- spread triggers SL
- commission replaces any spread reduction
- ECN ≠ cheaper
- slippage increases cost unpredictably
- micro targets cannot overcome friction
- rollover wipes out intraday systems
- one expansion invalidates a strategy
- the cost structure makes positive expectancy mathematically unreachable
Swing trading is the only realistic forex approach for retail traders.
FAQs
1. Is ECN cheaper?
No. Lower spread is offset by commission and slippage.
2. Why do I get stopped out when price didn’t touch my SL?
Spread triggered your stop-market order.
3. Can scalping work with perfect discipline?
No. Target < cost = impossible expectancy.
4. Why do backtests of scalping systems look profitable?
Because most backtests ignore spread expansion, slippage, and real execution.
5. What is the safest forex approach?
Swing trading on higher timeframes with wide stops and wide targets.
6. Is forex good for beginners?
Not on short timeframes. The microstructure makes it structurally untradeable.